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Recent Articles
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Cisco Looks Cheap at 13x Forward Non-GAAP Earnings But Fundamentals Are Deteriorating
Feb 15, 2024
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Image: Cisco has ratcheted down expectations during the past couple quarters, and its shares have been choppy for the better part of a year now.
We’re not liking what we’re seeing from Cisco Systems these days, and this is a change from our generally more upbeat view during the past several months. Revenue is under pressure, guidance continues to come in lower than expectations, its balance sheet will weaken as a result of its pending deal for Splunk, and free cash flow trends haven’t been as strong as they used to be. The company is adjusting its cost structure with layoffs as it continues to work to transform its business model to be more recurring, but the near term will likely continue to be challenging for the company. If free cash flow does not meaningfully improve in the next couple quarters, we’ll look to remove Cisco from the newsletter portfolios, despite its attractive ~13x forward non-GAAP earnings multiple.
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Coca Cola’s Pricing Strength Continues to Power Results
Feb 14, 2024
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Image: Coca-Cola’s pace of price/mix expansion continues to drive strong performance.
On February 13, Coca-Cola reported strong fourth quarter results that exceeded expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The standout metric in the quarter was organic revenue growth, which advanced an impressive 12% in the quarter thanks to a solid 9 percentage-point increase in price/mix and 3 percentage-point expansion in concentrate sales. The company’s outlook for 2024 was strong as well, with the company targeting organic revenue expansion of 6%-7% for the year, and we like the momentum behind Coca-Cola’s performance. The Dividend King continues to deliver for investors, and while shares are trading above our fair value estimate, investors can do a lot worse than investing in Coca-Cola, in our view.
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Waste Management’s Pricing Power Is Fantastic, Sustainability Initiatives Are Noble
Feb 13, 2024
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Image Source: TheInvertedFan.
There are few industry economics that we like better than the waste management industry, and Waste Management is the leader in this oligopolistic environment. Management plans to continue buying back stock, and the firm intends to raise its dividend by $0.20 per share, to $3.00 on an annual basis, making it 21 consecutive years that it has raised its payout. Though free cash flow will face pressure from its sustainability initiatives, the company’s free cash flow generation remains robust. At a $3 per-share annualized dividend, shares of Waste Management yield ~1.6% on a forward-looking basis. Though we don’t include Waste Management in the newsletter portfolios (we include peer Republic Services in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio), the company is one of our favorites for consideration.
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Eli Lilly’s Shares Have More Than Doubled During the Past 52 Weeks
Feb 11, 2024
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Image: Eli Lilly’s shares have been on a tear these past few years.
On February 6, Eli Lilly reported excellent fourth-quarter results that showed revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in better than expectations. The company’s fourth-quarter results were bolstered by sales of diabetes and weight-loss drug Mounjaro, which saw sales in the quarter leap to ~$2.2 billion from ~$279 million in the year ago period. We continue to be in awe of the sales momentum behind GLP-1 receptor agonists, and the opportunity continues to be robust, despite already rapid sales acceleration. Though Eli Lilly trades at a premium to the high end of our fair value estimate range, we may be low in our expectations of the company’s ability to tap this lucrative market in the longer run, and shares may still be attractive to the risk-seeking aggressive growth investor.
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