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Recent Articles
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Procter & Gamble’s Organic Growth Fails to Impress
Aug 12, 2024
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Image Source: P&G’s Citizenship Report.
Procter & Gamble’s fiscal fourth quarter disappointed a number of investors as organic growth failed to outpace expectations. Looking to fiscal 2025, all-in sales growth is expected in the range of 2%-4%, with organic growth in the range of 3%-5%. P&G is targeting fiscal 2025 core net earnings per share growth in the range of 5%-7% versus fiscal 2024 core earnings per share of $6.59. We like P&G a lot, but shares are trading well above our fair value estimate.
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Starbucks' Mixed Results Speak to Cautious Consumer Environment
Aug 12, 2024
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Image Source: Starbucks' Global Impact Report.
Starbucks’ fiscal third quarter results weren’t great. Consolidated revenue fell 1%, comparable store sales dropped, while the firm’s non-GAAP earnings per share faced additional pressures. During the fiscal third quarter, Starbucks opened 526 net new stores, ending the period with 39,477 stores -- broken down into 52% company-operated and 48% licensed. Stores in the U.S. and China made up 61% of its global portfolio. Starbucks is getting squeezed by a cautious consumer and higher labor costs, and while we like the company, we’re just not interested in shares at this time.
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Eli Lilly Puts Up Strong Second Quarter Results, Raises Outlook
Aug 9, 2024
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Image: Shares of Eli Lilly have been strong the past few years.
Looking to 2024 full-year guidance, Eli Lilly raised its revenue expectations by $3 billion, upped its reported earnings per share guidance $2.05, to the range of $15.10-$15.60, and increased its non-GAAP earnings per share guidance by $2.60 to the range of $16.10-$16.60, above the consensus forecasts. We continue to like Eli Lilly’s product portfolio, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound, and we include the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund, which includes Eli Lilly as its top weighting, in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.
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Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Aug 9, 2024
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Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.
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