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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Oct 23, 2019
Biotech and Pharma Roundup
Image Source: e-Magine Art. Some big news in the world of biotech and pharmaceuticals has come out this week, starting Monday October 21, that we want to get out in front of our members. In alphabetical order by ticker symbol: BIIB, BMY, MRK, NVS.
Sep 12, 2019
Merck Shows Impressive Margin Expansion
Image Source: Merck & Co Inc -- IR Presentation. Merck is improving its financials and we like that, but we still aren’t interested in shares after the run up during the past year and a half. The pharmaceutical giant’s net debt load is manageable given its strong free cash flows, but dividend growth will require share buybacks to be pared back first in order to make room for payout growth. It will take some time until we get an idea of how well Merck’s recent acquisitions pan out.
Aug 27, 2019
Elanco Buys Bayer’s Animal Health Unit, Gaining Scale and Greater Exposure to the “Humanization of Pets” Trend
On August 20, Elanco Animal Health Inc agreed to acquire Bayer AG’s animal health unit for $7.6 billion (at the time the deal was announced) through a cash and stock deal. This is a transformative deal for Elanco and one that will create a real competitor to Zoetis' and Merck’s animal health units. For Bayer, the company can now pivot to segments where it has stronger competitive advantages while also raising cash to cover potential Roundup-related legal liabilities (which could be enormous). We will be monitoring the space going forward but are staying firmly on the sidelines for now.
Jun 26, 2019
Another Pharmaceutical Giant Is Born
Image Source: AbbVie Inc – IR Presentation. The combination of AbbVie and Allergan seems to have been born out of the need to do something, anything, considering how dependent AbbVie is on Humira and Allergan is on Botox. We find the transaction interesting as it ties into our view that Big Pharma will continue getting bigger and bigger while the field gets smaller, but this doesn’t change on view on either Allergan or AbbVie. We aren’t considering shares of either company at this time.
Apr 26, 2019
Facebook Was Textbook, Intel Still About Fairly Valued After Weakness
Image: Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Facebook's stock has advanced 56% since it bottomed in December. This is yet another textbook execution of the Valuentum Buying Index, a strong breakout of the downtrend on a significantly undervalued stock. See also the example with Apple on page 241 in Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation.
Jan 11, 2019
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending January 11
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Sep 17, 2018
Galapagos’ Filgotinib Scores Major Win for Gilead Sciences
Image Source: Gilead second quarter earnings presentation. Filgotinib posted stellar data in a recent phase 3 trial for the treatment of Rheumatoid Arthritis. In light of the data, we feel Galapagos and, by extension of their commercial partnership, Gilead Sciences possess a best in class molecule in immunology.
Aug 23, 2018
Pfizer: Lots of Moving Parts in a Generally-Inspiring Second Quarter
Image Source: Pfizer. We came away generally impressed with the progress at Pfizer during the second quarter as the company begins to replace its current patent protected line-up with next-generation treatments. Pfizer continues to gain political favor with its decision to forgo price hikes on its product line-up while announcing a re-organization of the business structure.
Jul 29, 2018
AbbVie’s Outlook Remains Blurred
Image Source: Global Panorama. We remain bearish on the outlook for AbbVie as we do not believe the clinical pipeline will be able to adequately offset the loss of revenue when key product Humira loses patent protection beginning in October as a biosimilar enters the European market.
Jul 13, 2018
What Are the Downside Risks of Gilead Sciences?
We think the risk-reward at Gilead remains positively skewed in investors’ favor, but let’s examine the downside case for Gilead Sciences so there are no surprises. It’s always a good approach to evaluate where an investor may go wrong with an investment idea, and assessing upside and downside cases, as in a fair value range, remains par for the course.


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