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Recent Articles
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Nike In the Midst of a CEO Transition, Withdraws Full Year Guidance
Oct 2, 2024
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Image: Nike’s shares have been under pressure as the firm continues to underperform.
Nike is in the midst of a management transition with Elliott Hill returning to the company in the capacity of President and CEO effective October 14. Looking to the second quarter of fiscal 2025, Nike expects revenue to be down in the 8%-10% range and gross margins to be down roughly 150 basis points, pointing to higher promotions and channel mix headwinds. Though Nike has a storied brand, unmatched by rivals, it has fallen on difficult times, and we’re staying on the sidelines with respect to shares. Shares yield 1.7% at the time of this writing.
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Carnival Corp. Experiencing Strong Demand
Sep 30, 2024
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Image: Carnival’s shares have traded sideways since the beginning of 2024.
We like the demand momentum behind Carnival’s business, but its balance sheet keeps us on the sidelines. The company ended the quarter with $1.5 billion in cash and $28.9 billion in long-term debt. Fitch rates the company’s debt as non-investment grade with a BB credit rating. S&P rates its debt at BB and Moody’s B1. The company’s economic returns aren’t that much greater than its cost of capital either, even during good times. Carnival’s shares have been roughly flat year-to-date.
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DOJ Antitrust Lawsuits Targeting Our Top Two Ideas: V and GOOG
Sep 30, 2024
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Image: Alphabet's and Visa's shares have performed remarkably well since the beginning of 2023.
We received a number of questions regarding the DOJ's investigation into anticompetitive practices for two of the top ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Antitrust news with respect to Alphabet’s ad search business and Visa’s debit card business is nothing surprising, but it speaks to the positives and dominance behind their business models, something we like quite a bit. Any outcome of an antitrust lawsuit is uncertain and could result in a settlement and potential other action, including divestitures.
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Costco’s Shares Remain Pricey
Sep 27, 2024
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Image Source: Costco.
We liked Costco’s fiscal 2024 fourth quarter performance, despite the slight miss on the top line. Based on its adjusted comp performance in the period, we think Costco is gaining share against other big box retailers, too. The only problem with Costco, however, at the moment is its valuation, which remains elevated, with shares trading at 45-50 times next year’s earnings. Costco is a great company, but our fair value estimate is substantially below its share price, meaning we won’t be interested in shares unless they drop significantly.
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