Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary
Sep 3, 2020
Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site.
Sep 1, 2020
Valuentum Website Overview
Overview of the key features of www.valuentum.com (03:55).
Aug 19, 2020
Update: COVID-19 Vaccine Race
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has devasted the global economy (though things are starting to improve) and has fundamentally altered daily human life. According to a draft report from the World Health Organization (‘WHO’), there were 29 COVID-19 vaccine candidates undergoing clinical trials as of August 13 along with 138 other candidates undergoing preclinical evaluation. It is a race against the clock. Unfortunately, as of this writing on August 18, there have been ~170,000 COVID-19-related deaths in the US alone according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (‘CDC’). We are optimistic that one of the many “shots on goal” will end up proving successful. The US launched Operation Warp Speed to accelerate the development of a COVID-19 vaccine, which involves providing funding to companies with promising vaccine candidates. Furthermore, please note that major economies around the world have adjusted their rules and procedures to allow for multiple phases of clinical trials to be conducted concurrently. Before getting into some of the most promising COVID-19 vaccine candidates, we hope everyone, their loved ones, and their family members are staying safe out there as we ride out the pandemic.
Aug 3, 2020
Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call. Note: The August edition of the Exclusive publication will be released Saturday, August 8.
Jul 21, 2020
Johnson & Johnson Beats Estimates and Raises Guidance
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. On July 16, Johnson & Johnson reported second quarter 2020 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Most importantly, Johnson & Johnson increased its full-year guidance for 2020 as the firm is well-prepared to ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, in our view. We continue to like shares of JNJ in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. As of this writing, shares of JNJ yield ~2.7%.
Jun 18, 2020
Recent Events Concerning Johnson & Johnson
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – First Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. We include Johnson & Johnson as a top-weighted holding in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and as a medium-weighted holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The firm’s Dividend Cushion ratio sits at a solid 2.1 and please note that this forward-looking dividend coverage ratio factors in our expectations that Johnson & Johnson will grow its per share dividend by mid-single-digits annually over the coming years. Johnson & Johnson earns a “GOOD” Dividend Safety rating and an “EXCELLENT” Dividend Growth rating, with shares of JNJ yielding ~2.8% as of this writing. In our view, Johnson & Johnson’s strong balance sheet and high quality cash flow profile provide it with the financial strength to ride out the storm created by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic with its current dividend policy and financials intact.
Jun 16, 2020
Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks
Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. In addition to unlimited quantitative easing and "whatever it takes, squared" Fed policy, today, June 16, the Trump administration announced that it is weighing a $1 trillion stimulus bill to help support the economy. While uncertainties remain regarding specifics of the bill (it might include state assistance, extension of unemployment benefits, etc.), the move is consistent with the outsize spending we expect to further bolster the bull case, "ICYMI -- Stay Optimistic. Stay Bullish. I Am." We continue to emphasize that, in light of unlimited QE and runaway fiscal stimulus, the longer-duration components of intrinsic values are expanding considerably, and as a result, fair values, themselves, are actually rising during this recession and pandemic [a good estimate of the value of the S&P 500 today may be between 3,530-3,920, as outlined in the following: "Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes.]."
Jun 15, 2020
ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected
Image: The market's levels of volatility so far in 2020 have been among the greatest in history. Expectations for increased volatility in the marketplace as a result of the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (indexing and quantitative trading) is a key theme of Valuentum's text, Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. We continue to emphasize the importance of due diligence, enterprise valuation, behavioral thinking, the information contained in prices, and stock selection across equity portfolios. Page 256. This week is setting up to be yet another volatile week of trading, but nothing too surprising. We've talked extensively about outsize levels of volatility in the book Value Trap, and many of our predictions regarding the magnitude of volatility have come to fruition, as described in this note here. But as we've also noted in Value Trap, we don't think increased volatility is a transient development. The Fed and Treasury have only further emboldened price-agnostic trading (indexing/quant) with recent bailout actions, and volatility and momentum funds, which exacerbate the swings, will only grow as a percentage of trading volumes. The magnitude of market volatility during the COVID-19 crisis has certainly been immense. During March for example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had 8 consecutive days with a 4% move in either direction (this is the first time in history this happened--not even during the tumultuous times of the Crash of 1929 or Black Monday of 1987 or the Great Financial Crisis did this happen). Intra-day volatility has also been considerable, and it has become commonplace for equity futures to swing wildly before market open. Now, more than ever, investors need a steady hand at the wheel.
Jun 12, 2020
*ALERT* Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes
Image: Why are stock prices increasing while the near-term economy and near-term earnings outlook isn't as bright as before...How unlimited quantitative easing, runaway government spending, increased inflation expectations impact equity values...Why this year's earnings expectations or next year's earnings expectations don't matter much...Why Valuentum thinks equity values are rising today, even as the near-term outlook remains unclear. Scribbles on page 76 of Value Trap. "I know it sounds crazy to say so during a global pandemic and during a recession, but the right multiple and the right earnings to use to value this market is an 18-20x multiple on $196 earnings, putting a fair value range on the S&P 500 today of 3,530-3,920. The S&P 500 is trading at about 3,000 today." -- Brian Nelson, CFA
Jun 11, 2020
Valuentum Research Update
"Hope you all are doing great! I must say I couldn't be more pleased with the research we've been putting out, and thank you very much for your continued interest. In this piece, I wanted to get some of our latest work to you. First, please note that we've done a great job holding the line on many of our fair value estimates (ranges) on our website. Many stocks have been bouncing back, and we're glad we didn't rush through any updates. Updating fair value estimates (ranges) too frequently doesn't make much sense to us. We're after the right answer, not any answer." -- Brian Nelson, CFA
Latest Press Releases
The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.