Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 24
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022
Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. Let's talk more about the VBI rating system in this work.

Honeywell Jumps on Third-Quarter Report, Strong Guidance
Image Source: Honeywell. On October 27, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Honeywell International reported solid third-quarter performance and provided higher guidance for the full-year 2022. We continue to like the company as an idea in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, as we expect robust dividend growth in the coming years. The high end of our fair value estimate of Honeywell stands at $224 per share. Shares yield ~2.2% at the time of this writing.

Garbage Hauler Republic Services Beats Estimates, Raises Guidance
Image Shown: Shares of newsletter portfolio idea Republic Services have put up strong performance so far year-to-date in the face of volatile capital markets. There is a lot to like about Republic Services as the waste management firm is a tremendous free cash flow generator with ample pricing power. Management is incredibly shareholder friendly, as seen through recent per share dividend increases, and the company has been firing on all cylinders of late. We continue to like Republic Services in our newsletter portfolios. Our recently updated fair value estimate for RSG sits at $132 per share and the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $158 per share of Republic Services.

Lockheed Martin Facing Near Term Headwinds; Longer Term Outlook Remains Bright
Image Source: Lockheed Martin Corporation – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. Lockheed Martin Corp reported earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2022 (period ended June 26, 2022) that missed consensus top- and bottom-line estimates, largely due to delays in securing another domestic F-35 contract and supply chain hurdles. In our view, these are near term headwinds that are resolvable. Reportedly, Lockheed Martin is nearing a deal worth ~$30 billion with the US Department of Defense (‘DoD’) covering orders for around 375 F-35 aircraft. As it concerns supply chain hurdles, the resumption of normal economic activities (as the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic is put behind the world economy) should steadily allow industrial supplies and global logistics networks to catch up. These headwinds forced Lockheed Martin to reduce its guidance for fiscal 2022 in conjunction with its latest earnings update, specifically as it concerns its revenue and diluted EPS forecasts, though the defense contractor maintained its free cash flow and ‘segment operating profit’ guidance. We continue to like Lockheed Martin in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. The geopolitical backdrop (with an eye towards the Ukraine-Russia crisis, rising tensions between the US and China, and Western concerns with Iran and North Korea’s nuclear programs) is conducive for increased national defense spending in the U.S. and Western aligned nations across the globe. Lockheed Martin is well-positioned to meet those needs. Shares of LMT yield ~2.8% as of this writing.

Industrial Bellwethers A Mixed Bag: GE, BA, CAT, DE, UNP
Image Source: Caterpillar Inc – May 2022 Caterpillar Investor Day Presentation. In this article, we cover the industrial landscape by digging into the recent financial and operational performance of General Electric Company, Boeing Co, Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, and Union Pacific Corporation. Common themes include robust demand for their offerings, healthy order backlogs, and meaningful pricing power, though headwinds include substantial inflationary pressures, supply chain hurdles, and in certain instances, geopolitical tensions. General Electric will soon separate into three different publicly traded companies, and on a consolidated basis the firm is doing much better than years past. In 2022 and on a non-GAAP basis, General Electric is guiding for a 150+ basis point expansion in its adjusted organic operating margin and high-single-digit organic revenue growth, along with $2.80-$3.50 in adjusted EPS and $5.5-$6.5 billion in free cash flow (as defined by the company). Boeing’s financials continue to be in bad shape, and its operations continue to be plagued by missteps. The aerospace giant exited March 2022 with a massive net debt load of ~$45.5 billion (inclusive of short-term debt) after generating negative free cash flows in each year from 2019-2021. The company also generated negative free cash flows during the first quarter of 2022. Large working capital builds due to its inability to deliver certain aircraft, a product of its lackluster operational execution and regulatory intervention, is largely why Boeing has had difficulties generating positive free cash flows in recent years. Caterpillar’s first-quarter 2022 results were plagued by margin issues. In the period, the earth moving equipment maker’s GAAP revenues grew 14% year-over-year, but its manufacturing segment only posted a 3% year-over-year increase in operating income as higher costs weighed negatively on its profitability, offsetting pricing increases and increasing economies of scale. Caterpillar’s GAAP operating margin fell by ~140 basis points year-over-year in the first quarter, declining to 13.9%. During the first half of fiscal 2022, Deere’s GAAP revenues grew by 8% though its GAAP operating profit declined by 4% year-over-year, but the company’s performance in the fiscal second quarter indicates recent pricing actions have started to have a positive impact on its bottom-line performance. Deere raised its full-year earnings guidance in conjunction with its fiscal second quarter earnings update and now expects it will post $7.0-$7.4 billion in earnings this fiscal year. Union Pacific noted that its business volumes are measured by total revenue carloads increased by 4% year-over-year in the first quarter with strong growth seen at its agricultural and industrial freight volumes. The railroad company’s ‘operating income’ rose 19% year-over-year as its business continued to benefit from ongoing optimization efforts in the first quarter of 2022. The railroad operator remains very shareholder friendly and intends to payout roughly 45% of its earnings to investors as dividends.

Dividend Growth Idea Honeywell Capitalizing on Recovering Aerospace Industry
Image Shown: Dividend growth idea Honeywell International Inc increased its full-year guidance for 2022 during its first quarter earnings update. We continue to be big fans of the name as the aerospace industry steadily rebounds. Image Source: Honeywell International Inc – First Quarter of 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. On April 29, Honeywell International reported first quarter 2022 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates as its business continues to rebound from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Due to its strong performance, management raised the company’s full-year sales and earnings guidance for 2022 in conjunction with its latest earnings update. We continue to like Honeywell as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to gain exposure to the recovering aerospace industry and exposure to the nascent quantum computing industry. Shares of HON yield ~2.1% as of this writing.

Newsletter Portfolio Idea Republic Services Holding Up Quite Well in the Face of Major Headwinds
Image Shown: Shares of Republic Services Inc have held up quite well over the past several months while equity markets swooned lower. On May 5, Republic Services reported first quarter 2022 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The waste management firm is benefiting from its immense pricing power and volume growth. We continue to like Republic Services as an idea in both the Dividend Growth Newsletter and ESG Newsletter portfolios. Shares of RSG yield ~1.4% as of this writing.

Dividend Growth Idea Lockheed Martin Doing Its Best to Arm Western Allies
Image Shown: Dividend growth idea Lockheed Martin Corporation is very shareholder friendly. The defense contractor is doing its best to arm Ukraine and other Western allies during these difficult times. Image Source: Lockheed Martin Corporation – First Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and simmering geopolitical tensions in East Asia between Western aligned nations and China over Taiwan and other issues have created a backdrop that is conducive to significant increases in national defense spending. Though we hope peace prevails soon, the realities on the ground in Ukraine and elsewhere call for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (‘NATO’) member nations and other Western aligned nations to ramp up their military budgets to deter future threats and to prepare for worst case scenarios.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 25
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.