Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Clorox Misses Consensus Estimates in Its Fiscal Third Quarter
Image: Clorox’s shares have been under pressure more recently. Year-to-date, Clorox’s net cash provided by operations was $687 million compared to $355 million in the year-ago period, representing a 94% increase. For fiscal 2025, Clorox expects net sales to be down 1% to flat and adjusted organic sales to be up about 2%. Gross margin is now expected to be up about 150 basis points, with margin enhancement efforts more than offsetting cost inflation, high trade promotion spending, and higher costs from recently implemented tariffs. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to be between $6.95-$7.35, up 13% and 19%, respectively, and the midpoint slightly higher than consensus. Clorox ended the quarter with $2.5 billion in debt and $226 million in cash. We’re steering clear of Clorox due in part to its weak revenue performance and large net debt position. Shares yield 4.1% at the time of this writing.

Disney Expects Strong Earnings Growth in Fiscal 2025
Image Source: Valuentum. Looking to all of fiscal 2025, Disney expects adjusted earnings per share of $5.75, a 16% increase over 2024 levels. Cash provided by operations is targeted at $17 billion, benefiting from a $2 billion increase from the deferral of tax payments. Disney is targeting a double-digit increase in operating income for its Entertainment segment for the year, while Sports is expected to increase 18% with respect to segment operating income in fiscal 2025. Its Experiences segment is targeted for 6%-8% operating income growth for the year. We like Disney, but view shares as fairly valued at the moment. Shares yield 0.9% at the time of this writing.

Exxon Mobil’s Shares Have Been Choppy of Late
Image: Exxon Mobil’s shares have been choppy of late. Exxon Mobil continues to be shareholder friendly while it exercises cost discipline. Shareholder distributions in the quarter totaled $9.1 billion, consisting of $4.3 billion of dividends and $4.8 billion of share repurchases. The oil and gas giant has now achieved $12.7 billion of cumulative structural cost savings versus 2019, with $0.6 billion of cost savings achieved during the quarter. Management expects to deliver $18 billion of cumulative savings through the end of 2030 versus 2019. Free cash flow in the quarter was $8.84 billion, and the company ended the quarter with industry-leading debt-to-capital and net-debt-to-capital ratios. We like Exxon Mobil as energy exposure in a diversified portfolio, but we don’t include shares in any newsletter portfolio at this time. Shares yield 3.5% at the time of this writing.

J.M. Smucker Sets Fiscal 2026 Earnings Outlook Below Consensus
Image: J.M. Smucker’s shares have been under pressure of late. Looking to its fiscal year 2026 outlook, J.M. Smucker’s net sales are targeted to increase 2%-4% with adjusted earnings per share in the range of $8.50-$9.50 versus consensus of $10.25 per share. Comparable net sales are expected to increase approximately 3.5%-5.5%, which excludes noncomparable sales in the prior year related to the divestitures of the Voortman business and certain Sweet Baked Snacks value brands. Free cash flow is targeted at $875 million for the year, considering capital expenditures of $325 million. Shares yield 4.5% at the time of this writing.

Realty Income’s Monthly Dividend Is Durable
Image Source: Realty Income. Looking to 2025, Realty Income largely reiterated its prior guidance, with the exception of net income per share being lowered to the range of $1.40-$1.46 from $1.52-$1.58 previously. Adjusted funds from operations was reiterated in the range of $4.22-$4.28 per share for the year with same store rent growth of approximately 1%. Occupancy is targeted at over 98% while investment volume is expected to be approximately $4 billion. We like the durability of Realty Income’s monthly dividend, with shares yielding 5.7% at the time of this writing.

Johnson & Johnson Remains an Innovation Powerhouse
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson. J&J generated free cash flow of ~$3.4 billion in the first quarter compared to $2.85 billion in the year-ago period. Looking to full year 2025 guidance, J&J reiterated its adjusted operational sales growth target in the range of 2%-3%, but it raised its operational sales growth expectations to the range of 3.3%-4.3% from 2.5%-3.5% previously and its estimated reported sales growth guidance to the range of 2.6%-3.6% from 0.5%-1.5% previously. It lowered its adjusted operational earnings per share guidance for the year, but it maintained its adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance in the range of $10.50-$10.70, reflecting 6.2% growth at the midpoint. Shares yield 3.5% at the time of this writing.

Lennar Sees Softness in Housing Market
Image Source: TradingView. On June 16, Lennar Corp. reported mixed fiscal second quarter results with revenue beating the consensus forecast but non-GAAP earnings per share missing the consensus mark. Total revenues fell to $8.4 billion in the quarter from $8.8 billion in the year-ago period, while second quarter net earnings, excluding mark-to-market losses on technology investments were $499 million, or $1.90 per share, compared to $3.38 per share in the same period a year ago.

Adobe Raises Guidance Due to AI Strength
Image: Adobe’s stock has been choppy the past few years. Adobe’s cash flow from operations was $2.19 billion in the fiscal second quarter, and the firm exited the period with $19.69 billion Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), with current accounting for 67% of them. During the quarter, Adobe repurchased approximately 8.6 million shares. Looking to all of fiscal year 2025, total revenue is targeted in the range of $23.5-$23.6 billion, better than the consensus estimate of $23.45 billion, while non-GAAP earnings per share is expected in the range of $20.50-$20.70 versus consensus of $20.36. We like Adobe's fundamentals, but don't include shares in any newsletter portfolio.

Oracle Expects Accelerated Growth in Fiscal 2026
Image: Oracle’s shares have broken out to new all-time highs. On June 11, Oracle reported better than expected fourth quarter fiscal 2025 results with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus forecasts. Total revenue was up 11% in the quarter, while the company posted non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.70, up from $1.63 in last year’s quarter and better than the consensus forecast of $1.64. Non-GAAP operating income was $7.0 billion, up 5% in USD and up 4% in constant currency. Fourth quarter remaining performance obligations jumped 41%, to $138 billion. Operating cash flow was $20.8 billion during fiscal year 2025, up 12% in USD.

Salesforce Raises Full Year Revenue Guidance, Announces Plans to Acquire Informatica
Image: Salesforce’s shares have been choppy the past few years. Salesforce initiated second quarter fiscal 2026 revenue guidance calling for growth of 7%-8% in constant currency, while it raised its full-year revenue guidance to the range of $41-$41.3 billion, up 8% in constant currency and the range above the consensus forecast at the time of the report. Salesforce maintained its full year GAAP and non-GAAP operating margin guidance, as well as its full year operating cash flow guidance of approximately 10%-11% year-over-year growth. Free cash flow is targeted at 9%-10% year-over-year growth for the full year, while non-GAAP earnings per share is expected in the range of $11.27-$11.33 versus consensus of $11.17 per share at the time of the report. We liked Salesforce’s strong first quarter fiscal 2026 results and its raised full year revenue guidance. We have no qualms with its announced acquisition of Informatica, but we don’t include shares in any newsletter portfolio. Shares yield 0.6% at the time of this writing.