Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now
All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing!

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far
Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7.

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months.

Taiwan Semiconductor Benefiting from Strong Smartphone and AI Demand
Image: Taiwan Semiconductor released better than expected results. Taiwan Semiconductor ended the quarter with NT$2,167.6 billion in cash and marketable securities against long-term interest-bearing debt of NT$936.16, showcasing a nice net cash position. Free cash flow in the quarter advanced to NT$184.91 billion from NT$68.03 in the year-ago period. Looking to the fourth quarter of 2024, revenue is targeted in the range of US$26.1 billion and US$26.9 billion (consensus was at US$25.02 billion), while gross profit margin and operating profit margin, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 32 NT dollars, are expected to be 57%-59% and 46.5-48.5%, respectively. We liked Taiwan Semiconductor’s results and outlook, and the company remains a key idea in the ESG Newsletter portfolio.

Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios.

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.